A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
