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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still