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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.